'Peak Oil Theory' seems to generate an awful lot of hot air. If you google 'debunk peak oil' and read some of the blogs you will see (as most blogs!) an incredible level of arrogance .. the people who are so confident they are right and everyone else is wrong. 

Here's a clip from http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/3/6/95348/53066

Read it, bearing in mind that it was written just 15 months ago, and that today oil is at about $130 ... double what he is asserting wont happen in 5 years.

Like all good economists....

I propose a bet with any of the Peak Oilers- you name your scenario and let's put down some wagers on it. I'll start:

I think in real terms the price of oil (measured by average price over the year) will not be greater than $65 a barrel during any year over the next 5 years (unless there is another major war in the Middle East).

Takers?

By the way, saying that oil prices are going to rise or that oil exploration is going to get more expensive over time is like saying the sun rises in the East- so what? The economy can and will handle that. What Peak Oil predicts is catastrophe- rapid increases in prices- and I will put my money on the fact that that is wrong.

J.S.

I teach environmental economics and blog at www.voicesofreason.info.

by Jason D Scorse at 7:59 AM on 07 Mar 2007